Lawrence, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

615
FXUS63 KTOP 250541
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1241 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms persist mainly over north central
  and portions of northeast Kansas this afternoon and evening
  hours. Isolated severe storms may produce large hail and
  damaging wind gusts.

- Confidence in the threat for flash flooding is low-moderate through
  Friday morning(30-50%), dependent upon the location of the
  storms and antecedent rainfall that has occurred the last few
  days.

- After occasional showers and non-severe storms this weekend, a
  stronger storm system has the potential to produce severe
  weather throughout the region Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Broad west to southwesterly flow aloft observed via water vapor this
afternoon.  Weak perturbations are noted over Nebraska and northern
Oklahoma/southeast Kansas. Sfc inverted trough axis has stretched
from central KS through southwest Iowa while the sfc cold front is
situated from northwest Kansas through southeast Nebraska. Light
showers with some isolated thunder associated with the weak embedded
wave continues to progress eastward towards far eastern Kansas by
the late afternoon. CAMs are struggling to resolve the current
situation in northeast Kansas while the environment is sampling 1500
J/KG of MUCAPE and around 20 to 30 kts of effective bulk shear.
Because of this, cannot rule out widely scattered storms developing
within this wave after 3 PM into the early evening. If storms
develop, the strongest updrafts may contain large hail, gusty winds,
and localized heavy rainfall. Given the weaker mid level winds and
higher PWAT values above 1 inch, high rainfall rates may lead to
localized flooding, especially for areas that have received several
inches the last few days.

As the cold front pushes southward overnight, additional scattered
storms are possible especially towards central Kansas, aided by a 30
kt low level jet.  Overnight convection may be marginally severe
with hail up to near quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 60
mph. Subsident air behind the front and building heights aloft
signal a temporary end to the continuous precip chances by Friday
morning as north winds behind the boundary increase from 10 to 20
mph in the afternoon. Highs are cooler overall on Friday in the mid
to upper 60s.

A southern stream embedded wave enters the southern plains late
Friday into Saturday and while much of the better midlevel lapse
rates are focused over Oklahoma, CAMs are still trying to generate
scattered showers, perhaps with some thunder through the afternoon
hours. Not anticipating a washout Saturday, generally less than a
tenth of an inch of QPF. Scenario repeats late Saturday night
through Sunday morning with an additional disturbance, albeit varied
on strength and coverage of showers amongst ensembles. Overall
severe threat is low for the weekend, cannot rule out small hail or
gusty winds within the stronger updrafts.

Severe threat increases once again Monday afternoon and evening as a
stout southwest upper trough splits as it ejects into the central
plains Monday afternoon and evening. Latest guidance continues to be
in decent agreement with the location and timing of the wave. Ample
SFC CAPE increases in excess of 3000 J/KG and effective bulk shear
is above 50 kts, suggesting convection that is capable of all
hazards, especially given that the boundary layer remains capped
until peak heating of the late afternoon. Will need to continue
monitor trends with this system as it has the potential to be a
higher impact severe weather day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

An MCV across north central KS along with weak isentropic lift
may provide rain showers with a few to scattered thunderstorms
in the vicinity of the terminals through the early morning
hours. Once the showers and scattered storms pass east of the
terminals by 12Z, low level stratus with MVFR/IFR ceilings will
develop after 10Z. The IFR ceilings may last from 12Z through
16Z. The ceilings will gradually rise to MVFR levels after 16z
and through the afternoon hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Gargan