Lawrence, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS63 KTOP 070852
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
352 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible through the morning hours. The stronger storms may
  produce small hail

- Additional chances (20-40%) for storms come Sunday afternoon and
  evening with the potential for a few strong to severe storms.

- Dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Early this morning a short-wave upper trough was moving east
across western KS. At the surface an outflow
boundary/stationary front extended from the northern TX PNHDL
east-northeast across the KS/OK border. A severe complex of
storms were moving east along and just north and south of the
boundary. The complex of storms will drift east-southeast during
the morning hours into southeast KS, then northeast
OK/southwest MO/northern AR. Isolated to scattered elevated
storms will possible through the morning hours across the CWA
but as the H5 trough shifts east by afternoon, the ascent will
shift east across MO and the shower and storm chance will end.

A more amplified upper trough will dig southeast from central Canada
into the northern Great Lakes. The southern extend of the H5 trough
axis will shift southeast across the CWA Sunday afternoon. A surface
cold front will push southeast across the CWA during the afternoon
hours of Sunday. Thunderstorms will develop along the front and some
of these storm may be strong to severe as MLCAPE will increase ahead
of the front to around 2000 J/kg and effective shear will increase
to 30 KTS. The primary hazard would be severe wind gusts with
any line of storms that develop and any isolated storm within
the line may produce large hail if the updraft develops mid-
level rotation.

The front should move southeast of the area Sunday evening and
the rain chances will end from northwest to southeast across the
CWA.

The extended forecast looks dry through the end of next week. An
upper trough will move onshore across the western US and
southwesterly flow across the central Rockies will cause a lee
surface trough to deepen across the high Plains. Southerly low-level
flow across the southern and central Plains will begin to transport
rich gulf moisture northward providing isentropic lift for a chance
for showers and thunderstorms by Thursday into the next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Main thing to watch will be coverage of convection tonight into
Saturday morning. A few showers have developed in south central
KS, and while those may become spotty across eastern KS this
evening as well, chances are focused on the cluster of storms
progged to move across western KS tonight. Most of this activity
should stay south of terminals, but there remains some variation
between CAMs on how far north it could get and on exact timing.
There also looks to be another batch of storms that comes out of
Nebraska early in the morning, which may or may not impact
terminals. Have attempted to capture both of these within the
PROB30 group given the uncertainties for now. MVFR cigs/vis
appear likely within any storms. Some guidance suggests those
conditions could be more widespread in the region while other
models suggest they would be confined to storms, so think
limiting MVFR conditions to the PROB30 group makes most sense at
this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Picha